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The higher education bubble is a hypothesis that there is a speculative boom and bust phenomenon in the field of higher education, particularly in the United States, and that there is the risk of an economic bubble in higher education that could have repercussions in the broader economy. Enrollment at more than 40% of private colleges and universities declined during 2012, forcing the institutions to offer steep tuition discounts to fill seats. President Obama nearly doubled the federal Pell Grant Program, from $19 billion in 2009 to $36 billion for 2013. According to the theory, while college tuition payments are rising, the supply of college graduates in many fields of study is exceeding the demand for their skills, which aggravates graduate unemployment and underemployment, which in turn increases the rate of student loan defaults. ==Discussion== Benjamin Ginsberg explains the connection between the increased ability to pay tuition and the increase in services provided in his book ''The Fall of the Faculty.'' According to Ginsberg, "there have been new sorts of demands for administrative services that require more managers per student or faculty member than was true in the past." The Goldwater Institute echoes this sentiment with its findings that, "Between 1993 and 2007, the number of full-time administrators per 100 students at America’s leading universities grew by 39 percent, while the number of employees engaged in teaching, research or service only grew by 18 percent." As discussed below, the "higher education bubble" is controversial and has been rejected by some economists. Indeed, many Americans still believe in the value of a college education, although they are unsure about its quality and affordability.〔(【引用サイトリンク】url=http://www.guidetoonlineschools.com/thelearningcurve/americans-consider-the-quality-of-higher-education )〕 Data shows that the wage premium—the difference between what those with a four-year college degree earn and what those with only a high school education earn—has increased dramatically since the 1970s, but so has the 'debt load' incurred by students due to the tuition inflation.〔Thomas Lemieux, Postsecondary Education And Increasing Wage Inequality, 96 AM. ECON. REVIEW 195 (2006)〕〔Michael Simkovic, (Risk-Based Student Loans ) (2012)〕〔Sandy Baum and Michael McPherson, (Job-Skill Trends and the College-Wage Premium ), Chronicle of Higher Education, Sept. 21, 2010〕 The data also suggests that, notwithstanding a slight increase in 2008–2009, student loan default rates have declined since the mid-1980s and 1990s. Those with college degrees are much less likely than those without to be unemployed, even though they are more expensive to employ (they earn higher wages).〔U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (Education Pays )〕 The global management consulting firm McKinsey and Company projects a shortage of college-trained workers, and a surplus of workers without college degrees, which would cause the wage premium to increase, and cause differences in unemployment rates to become even more dramatic.〔McKinsey Global Institute, (An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America's Future ), June 2011〕 What is also interesting is that the cost of tuition over last 4 years from 2009–2012 has been increasing steadily over the years while wages have remained stagnant. The inflation has been at really low levels in US in past 4 years and there are no explainable reasons why (Cost of Masters / Graduation ) is rising higher than inflation In 1971, ''Time'' ran an article "Education: Graduates and Jobs: A Grave New World," which stated that the supply of post-graduate students was around twice larger than the expected future demand in upcoming decades.〔 In 1987, U.S. Secretary of Education William Bennett first suggested that the availability of loans may in fact be fueling an increase in tuition prices and an education bubble. This "Bennett hypothesis" claims that readily available loans allow schools to increase tuition prices without regard to demand elasticity. College rankings are partially driven by spending levels, and higher tuition prices are correlated with increased public perceptions of . Over the past thirty years, demand has increased as institutions improved facilities and provided more resources to students. Additionally, schools tend to enroll fewer students as they improve student offerings and increase prices. This suggests that it is in schools' best interest to increase tuition prices as much as possible, so long as financial aid ensures an ability to pay on the part of students and parents. A variation on the higher education bubble theory suggests that there is no general bubble in higher education—that is, on average, higher education really does boost income and employment by more than enough to make it a good investment—but that degrees in some specific fields may be overvalued because they do little to boost income or improve job prospects, while degrees in other fields may in fact be ''undervalued'' because students do not appreciate the extent to which these degrees could benefit their employment prospects and future income. Proponents of this theory have noted that schools charge equal prices for tuition regardless of what students study, the interest rate on federal student loans is not adjusted according to risk, and there is evidence that undergraduate students in their first 3 years of college are not very good at predicting future wages by major.〔 A 2011 article in ''The Huffington Post'' related concern that new college graduates hiring rates are up by 10 percent and that attaining a secondary level education eventually pays off. It is also suggested that high school graduates are three times more likely to live in poverty than students with higher education degrees. A recent study from the Labor Department suggests that attaining a bachelor's degree "represents a significant advantage in the job market". However, the article also claims that those who only have a high school education—unemployment is slightly higher at a rate of 9.3 percent. The proponents of the article also claim that companies are most likely to hire an applicant straight from college rather than one who has been unemployed. A 2010 article in the ''The Christian Science Monitor'' suggest ten main benefits of obtaining a degree via higher education. Also suggesting that a college degree pays off financially and intangibly for the graduate, and overall for society. In November 2011, ''The Chronicle of Higher Education'' ran an article claiming that the future is bright for college graduates and expected to improve. A rapid 10% increase is anticipated for new bachelor's hires. A survey conducted by ''The Chronicle of Higher Education'' suggests that 40 percent of 3,300 employers plan to hire graduates from all fields of study. The survey suggested stability in the upcoming job market. A 2009 article in ''The Chronicle of Higher Education'' related concern from parents wondering whether it is worth the price to send their children to college. ''The Economist'' in turn hypothesized that the bubble bursting may make it harder for colleges to fill their classes, and that some building projects will come to a halt. The ''Boston Herald'' further suggested the possibility of mergers, closures and even bankruptcies of smaller colleges that have spent too much and taken on too much debt. ''National Review'' writer Dan Lips has proposed that the bubble's bursting may bring down higher education prices. Glenn Reynolds wrote in the ''Washington Examiner'' that those who have financed their educations with debt may be particularly hard-hit. Reynolds continued arguing his case in ''The Higher Education Bubble'' where he noted that higher education, as a "product grows more and more elaborate-- and more expensive-- but the expense is offset by cheap credit provided by sellers who are eager to encourage buyers to buy." Further speculation as to the higher education bubble was the focus of a series of articles in''The Economist'' in 2011.〔(Higher Education, The Latest Bubble? ) ''The Economist'', April 13, 2011〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Higher education bubble」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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